Trading Trees

What you should know before investing in carbon credits

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) is growing — and growing up. Across the UK, estates and businesses are being approached with carbon offset deals — woodland creation, peatland restoration, or biodiversity schemes promising long-term income and a lighter footprint. But as the voluntary carbon market surges, the gap between promise and reality is widening.

But beneath the surface lies a complicated truth. In 2024, the voluntary carbon market was worth around US $1.4 billion and £166 million in the UK and anticipated to grow tenfold by 2030; however the volume of credits traded globally fell by 29% compared to the year before. At the same time, prices for high-integrity “removal” credits (like afforestation) soared, costing 380% more than low-quality avoidance offsets. The market is bifurcating — and integrity is the dividing line.

The challenge? Many credits don’t deliver. Research in Nature Communications found that 87% of corporate-purchased offsets risked failing to deliver real, additional emissions reductions. Nearly a third of all credits assessed under the Integrity Council’s Core Carbon Principles failed the benchmark. Even respected registries have come under scrutiny: one investigation found that ~94% of rainforest credits issued may have overstated their impact.

Forest-based credits face another problem: permanence. A 2023 wildfire risk study found that by 2080, climate-driven fire exposure to forest carbon projects could increase by 55%, threatening stored carbon and credit credibility. Meanwhile, other carbon projects have been linked to illegal activity or land use disputes, including in the Brazilian Amazon where offset revenues exceeded $15 million.

So what should you do if you’re approached with an offsetting deal — or thinking of investing?

Ask three questions:

1. Is it additional? Would this project happen anyway, even without carbon finance?

2. Is it permanent? What could reverse the carbon savings over time?

3. Is it credible? Who verified it — and are they truly independent?

At Resilient Horizons, we offer due diligence on carbon, nature, and renewable energy projects. We assess claims, risks, and market alignment so you know what you’re buying — or selling. We help clients understand permanence, additionality, co-benefits, contract terms, and operational realities.

Whether you’re a board considering climate strategy, an estate evaluating a project, or an investor reviewing your carbon portfolio, our job is simple: help you separate the meaningful from the marketing.

Carbon can be a powerful asset — but only if it’s credible.

References

1. Reuters. Around a third of carbon credits fail new benchmark test (2024)
   https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/around-third-carbon-credits-fail-new-benchmark-test-2024-08-06/

2. West et al. Most corporate carbon offsets lack additionality. Nature Communications (2024)
   https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51151-w

3. Carbon Credits. What to expect in 2025 and beyond (2024)
   https://carboncredits.com/carbon-credits-in-2024-what-to-expect-in-2025-and-beyond-250b-by-2050/

4. Ballard et al. Wildfire risk to forest carbon offset projects (2023)
   https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.02397

5. Reuters. Illegal loggers profit from Brazil’s carbon credit projects (2025)
   https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/illegal-loggers-profit-brazils-carbon-credit-projects-2025-07-07/

6. IMARC Group. UK Carbon Credits Market: Industry Trends, Forecast 2024–2033
   https://www.imarcgroup.com/uk-carbon-credits-market